As of 12:00 Germany time (CEST, UTC+2)
TL;DR: Global equities rebounded on Tuesday as investors bought the dip in technology shares and oil prices fell after Iran and Israel said they had halted attacks for now. The recovery was broad enough to stabilise risk appetite, but the macro backdrop remains restrictive: U.S. Treasury yields are still elevated, the dollar remains firm and maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still well below normal levels.
In Asian Equity Markets stocks recovered sharply as investors returned to the AI-linked names that absorbed the heaviest selling during Monday's unwind. South Korea's KOSPI rose around 8.2 percent, Japan's Nikkei gained roughly 2.2 percent and Taiwan's Taiex advanced around 2.8 percent, supported by renewed buying in semiconductor shares. The rebound showed that investors still view the recent correction as a positioning and valuation reset rather than a fundamental break in the AI investment cycle. But the size of the swings also underlined how concentrated the regional tape has become.
In European Equity Markets stocks moved higher as technology shares led the regional recovery. The pan-European STOXX 600 gained around 0.5 percent, with ASML and Infineon among the stronger performers as investors rebuilt exposure to the semiconductor complex. Lower oil prices also reduced some immediate pressure on energy-sensitive sectors. The move was constructive, but Europe remains exposed to a less forgiving rates backdrop, with the European Central Bank widely expected to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent on Thursday.
In U.S. Equity Markets futures pointed higher as technology shares extended the dip-buying rebound. Major index futures rose around 0.4 to 0.6 percent, with Nvidia among the names gaining in pre-market trading. Investor attention remained focused on AI-related catalysts, including anticipation around Oracle's earnings report and continued excitement around major technology listings. The key distinction is that the equity market is stabilising because investors still trust the earnings theme. It is not stabilising because the macro constraint has disappeared.
In Commodities Markets oil prices fell after Iran and Israel said they had paused attacks on one another following an appeal from U.S. President Donald Trump. Brent crude declined around 1.75 percent to roughly $92.60 per barrel, reversing much of Monday's move higher. The immediate relief is meaningful, but the physical-market picture remains tight. Maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still well below normal levels, global inventories continue to draw down and both sides warned that hostilities could resume. The oil market is pricing a pause, not a resolution.
In Currency Markets the U.S. dollar remained supported by stronger U.S. employment data and expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates later this year. The euro traded around $1.1546, while the yen weakened to roughly 160.2 per dollar, above the level that has intensified intervention warnings from Japanese authorities. The currency market continues to send a more cautious signal than equities. A firm dollar and a yen beyond 160 suggest that rate differentials and imported-energy pressure remain active cross-asset constraints.
In Bond Markets yields remained elevated despite the decline in oil. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stayed above 4.5 percent, while 30-year yields have spent more time above 5 percent this year than in any year since 2007. Germany's 10-year Bund yield held around 3.05 percent ahead of Thursday's expected ECB rate hike. The bond market is not confirming a full relief trade. Investors are still pricing sticky inflation, tighter policy and a reduced margin for error in long-duration assets.
The Cross-Asset Read
Tuesday's rebound matters because it shows that investors are still willing to buy the technology dip when oil pressure eases. The AI investment cycle has not lost credibility, and Monday's selloff did not automatically turn into a broader risk-off move.
But the recovery should not be confused with a clean reset.
The market is still carrying two unresolved constraints. Hormuz traffic remains restricted, which leaves the oil market vulnerable to another supply shock. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated enough to keep pressure on long-duration valuations. Equities can absorb one of those risks more easily than both together.
The checkable flag remains straightforward: Brent sustaining a move above $100, or the U.S. 10-year yield holding above 4.60 percent, would indicate that the relief trade is losing credibility. If both happen together, the current dip-buying rebound becomes much harder to defend.
For now, technology shares are stabilising. The warning light is coming from bonds.
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